Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.051896 0.059162 0.067307 0.077157 0.088803 0.102202 0.118887
2025-11-30 0.041504 0.050584 0.061629 0.076206 0.095159 0.119284 0.152821
2025-12-07 0.034055 0.043929 0.056818 0.075196 0.101261 0.137751 0.194260
2025-12-14 0.027697 0.037518 0.051150 0.071980 0.103979 0.153002 0.237407
2025-12-21 0.021874 0.030848 0.043958 0.065208 0.100206 0.158335 0.268761
2025-12-28 0.018783 0.027595 0.041163 0.064554 0.106065 0.181427 0.341585
2026-01-04 0.016596 0.025353 0.039537 0.065522 0.115241 0.214243 0.451712
2026-01-11 0.014608 0.023109 0.037521 0.065447 0.122803 0.247722 0.586307
2026-01-18 0.012942 0.021138 0.035636 0.065247 0.130361 0.285344 0.761865
2026-01-25 0.011327 0.019012 0.033110 0.063262 0.133733 0.315693 0.946729
2026-02-01 0.009839 0.016902 0.030267 0.060020 0.133401 0.337356 1.129408
2026-02-08 0.008928 0.015733 0.029062 0.060100 0.141521 0.388284 1.488943
2026-02-15 0.008094 0.014618 0.027833 0.059998 0.149768 0.447266 1.988702
2026-02-22 0.007470 0.013831 0.027161 0.061130 0.162335 0.531926 2.804927
2026-03-01 0.006895 0.013062 0.026403 0.061898 0.174512 0.627329 3.960624
2026-03-08 0.006256 0.012073 0.024988 0.060597 0.179714 0.700310 5.217265
2026-03-15 0.005503 0.010748 0.022592 0.056023 0.171867 0.707753 5.935179
2026-03-22 0.005115 0.010177 0.021908 0.056257 0.182122 0.820514 8.422777
2026-03-29 0.004832 0.009804 0.021651 0.057741 0.198355 0.990001 13.000042
2026-04-05 0.004530 0.009349 0.021114 0.058231 0.211098 1.159625 19.510020
2026-04-12 0.004249 0.008910 0.020551 0.058519 0.223472 1.350848 29.656249
2026-04-19 0.003931 0.008345 0.019569 0.057148 0.227548 1.488520 41.365028
2026-04-26 0.003601 0.007717 0.018325 0.054568 0.224494 1.564316 53.111093